And he warned in particular against any attempt by Bush to pursue the surge strategy through the end of his term, insisting that "such a course contains extreme risks for U.S. national security [because] … it would greatly increase the chances for a poorly planned withdrawal from Iraq or possibly the broader Middle East region that could damage U.S. interests for decades."

"[I]t is certain that domestic pressure for withdrawal will continue to be intense," he said. "A course change should happen now, while there is still some possibility or constructing a sustainable bipartisan strategy in Iraq. … In short, our political timeline will not support a rational course adjustment in Iraq, unless such an adjustment is initiated very soon."

Lugar essentially endorsed key elements of the Iraq Study Group (ISG), the bipartisan, congressionally appointed task force chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker and former Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton that last December issued a detailed report outlining recommendations for withdrawing U.S. combat forces by April 2008.

The ISG also recommended a diplomatic offensive featuring engagement with all of Iraq's neighbors, including Iran and Syria, and intensified efforts to bring about an Israeli-Arab peace accord.

Lugar called the ISG report a "template for bipartisan cooperation on our Iraq strategy."

He cited three factors for his conclusion that "the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved."

"First," he said, even if U.S. forces succeed in reducing the violence, "it is very doubtful that the leaders of Iraqi factions are capable of implementing a political settlement in the short run," he said. "American strategy must adjust to the reality that sectarian factionalism will not abate any time soon and probably cannot be controlled from the top."

The second factor working against U.S. aims "is the fatigue of our military," he said, citing declines in readiness and recruitment standards that have resulted from the Iraq war.

Finally, the public's patience for Washington's military commitment is fast running out. "The president and his team must come to grips with the shortened political timeline in this country for military operations in Iraq," he said. "[O]ur political timeline will not support a rational course adjustment in Iraq, unless such an adjustment is initiated very soon."

Moreover, he said, the administration's fixation on "artificial notions of achieving victory or avoiding defeat" in Iraq risks broader U.S. interests in the region. He called for Washington to focus on meeting four "primary objectives" – preventing Iraq or part of its territory from being used as a safe haven for terrorists; preventing the violence there from destabilizing the region; preventing Iran from dominating the region; and limiting the loss of U.S. credibility in the region.

At the same time, a total withdrawal also would not serve the same U.S. interests, if only because it would enhance the likelihood of a wider regional conflict and damage U.S. credibility with its allies in the region, he said, calling instead for a "downsizing and redeployment of U.S. military forces to more sustainable position in Iraq or the Middle East," possibly including Kurdistan or nearby states from which Washington could respond to "terrorist threats, protect oil flows, and help deter a regional war."

Democrats hailed Lugar's speech, noting that it could become a turning point in the standoff between the administration and their party, particularly if Lugar helps bring along other key Republicans, notably Warner, who has been quietly expressing doubts about the surge since it was initiated.

"Whether or not the White House is listening, Sen. Lugar's statement is already sending shock waves through Capitol Hill," noted Jim Cason, an analyst at the Friends Committee on National Legislation, an antiwar lobby.

"His statement creates political space for other Republicans to come out more publicly calling for a change in policy in Iraq based on the ISG's recommendations."

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