Former Chief Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter has revealed that preliminary military operations against Iran has begun. As was the case with Iraq pre-March 2003, the Bush administration today speaks of "diplomacy" and a desire for a "peaceful" resolution to the Iranian question. The truth was that operations had actually started as early as July 2002.

In his commentary in Al-Jazeera, Ritter reveals that the US has publicly violated Iranian airspace with drones and other aircraft -- itself an act of war. Furthermore the CIA is using the Mujahadeen el-Khalq, or MEK, an Iranian opposition group, once run by Saddam Hussein's dreaded intelligence services, but now working exclusively for the CIA's Directorate of Operations. Another piece of the puzzle is the staging of US forces in Iran's northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, confirmed in the following Stratfor report and other sources.

Azerbaijan: U.S. Forces Already on the Ground
By Stratfor 15/4/05

Though U.S. officials deny plans to send American forces to Azerbaijan -- as U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Reno Harnish did April 14 -- some U.S. troops and materiel are already in the country, and more forces and aircraft will be deployed there later this year, multiple sources in Azerbaijan say. Among the sources are Azerbaijani government sources, members of parliament, opposition members and ordinary citizens throughout the country who say they have seen U.S. troops and aircraft arriving.

Locals reported seeing American troops at the headquarters and other facilities of the Caspian Guard -- members of which were trained by U.S. military instructors in Baku -- and near the towns of Kurdamir, Nasosnyy and Gyulakh. Azerbaijani media, including the Zerkalo newspaper, have started posting articles about the current and future U.S. military presence in the country. Also, Russian intelligence and Georgian and Armenian government sources say their respective governments are aware of the existing U.S. military presence in Azerbaijan and of the agreement for more forces to come.

Azerbaijani government sources confirmed that the agreement between Baku and Washington on locating U.S. "temporarily deployed mobile forces" was indeed finalized during U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's stealth visit to Azerbaijan on April 12. Rumsfeld and Azerbaijani Prime Minister Artur Rasizade and Defense Minister Safar Abiyev -- acting on behalf of Aliyev -- struck the agreement right at Baku's international airport. The sources said that Rumsfeld, not satisfied with Baku's initial agreement, pressured the officials to set a quick fixed date to begin major deployments of U.S. forces to Azerbaijan. Aliyev, however, wants to delay the major U.S. forces' arrival -- or at least the formal announcement of it -- until later this year.

Aliyev has two reasons for wanting to wait. First, he wants to make sure Washington keeps its promise not to support a pro-U.S. "revolution" that would coincide with Azerbaijan's November parliamentary elections when -- as was the case in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan -- the current government would be accused of election fraud and treated accordingly by the West and Western-encouraged opposition. Second, Aliyev ideally wants to see the results of secret U.S.-Russian discussions about the U.S. military deployment to Azerbaijan, in hopes of escaping a wrathful response from Russia.

Washington and Moscow have indeed had quiet contacts on this issue, Russian government sources say. They added that Moscow initiated the contacts some time ago because initially, Washington just pushed for its military presence in Azerbaijan without mentioning it to Russia. Then, the Kremlin let Washington know its displeasure and hinted it would go public on the matter. Washington then agreed to talk with the Russians about the issue. True to his current strategy of avoiding confrontation with the United States -- perhaps in order to win time for the weakened Russia -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a conciliatory approach on the issue, sources in the Kremlin say.

The only concern Putin has expressed to Washington is that the deployment of U.S. forces in Azerbaijan should not lead to the destruction of a Russian strategic radar and radio electronic reconnaissance base in the northern Azerbaijani town of Qabala. Washington privately told the Russians that there should be no problem with both nations having bases in Azerbaijan at the same time, but it is reluctant to agree to never raise the issue of the Russians' withdrawing their base -- an issue that Baku will decide, the sources say. But the Russians know too well that Washington would have no problem letting Baku know it is unhappy with the Qabala base, and Azerbaijan would be happy to oblige.

Mindful of these problems, Aliyev deliberately arranged for his visit to Pakistan to coincide with Rumsfeld's arrival, Azerbaijani government sources say. The two missed each other by mere hours. In Aliyev's absence, his deputies relayed his agreement to U.S. bases in Azerbaijan but, much to Rumsfeld's frustration, did not commit to a specific date of the beginning of major U.S. deployments -- they said only that Baku will accommodate the deployment this year and that the government wants to postpone a formal announcement on the matter. If the sources are right, the deal is indeed sealed, and the only remaining issue is when more U.S. forces will arrive in Azerbaijan.

As for the U.S. military presence already in Azerbaijan, it likely consists of 250-300 troops on various missions and a few aircraft, logistic and special operations forces. Among them are:

• U.S. military instructors from the U.S. European Command training the Caspian Guard, a large command that will be under direct U.S. supervision and largely made up of Azerbaijani troops;
• U.S. logistic personnel building or upgrading facilities to be used for the major deployment later this year;
• U.S. inspection teams surveying and checking the progress and completion of work done by local personnel under U.S. military and civilian managers to get designated bases and other facilities fully ready for the arrival of major U.S. contingents;
• U.S. special operations forces units providing security and protection of the facilities being prepared for U.S. troops and aircraft; and
• Several U.S. military cargo planes and special operations forces aircraft with their crews and technicians -- though they shuttle back and forth, there are a few of these aircraft in Azerbaijan at any given time.

There are also an unidentified number of employees of several American private firms -- security, logistic and construction -- that serve as subcontractors to the Pentagon to help prepare the facilities for the U.S. forces' arrival.

Azerbaijani sources also say the following facilities are being prepared for use by U.S. forces in Azerbaijan:

• Three air "lily pad" bases in central Azerbaijan -- Kurdamir, Nasosnyy and Gyulakh -- which used to be Soviet air bases. Kurdamir was a strategic base, with Tu-22M "Backfire" bombers located there. The base's upgrade, including its runway, already is completed, local sources say. This means the air base can receive U.S. strategic bombers or other heavy air transport. The Nasosnyy base used to host Soviet heavy transport Il-76es for Soviet airborne forces and other troops. With the Nasosnyy upgrade soon to be completed, U.S. strategic transport planes should be able to use it too, making the air base a major point in the Caspian air corridor from Western Europe to the Caucasus and Central Asia, where U.S. troops and aircraft are located. Initially, the United States probably will deploy some special operations forces aircraft, military transport planes, air surveillance and other spy planes (including drones) and perhaps F-16s.
• The Caspian Guard Command Center in Baku, where U.S. officers hold supervisory positions. A few U.S. special operations troops also will be assigned to protect the facility.
• The radar facility adjacent to the Caspian Guard Command Center. The facility will have U.S. specialists serving it. The radar's range and surveillance/detection capability will cover not only Azerbaijan but also border areas of Iran and Russia, including the war-torn Chechnya, and the Caspian Sea with its heavy oil traffic.
• Military training bases in Baku and Salyany. U.S. military instructors there will train Azerbaijani troops within the framework of the Caspian Border Peace Initiative, with the main goal of protecting the European-bound Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.
• The Apsheron Peninsula near Baku would be home to the rapid reaction/deployment force made up of U.S. Marines and special operations troops. Washington and Baku are still discussing this longer-run deployment